See how MSTR's price mechanically responds to Bitcoin's price, senior claims, and the rest of Strategy's balance sheet. Adjust any input below to explore your own scenario.
Model how __TICK__ price — and every output metric — evolves between two dates.
Bitcoin price. The current market price of one bitcoin in US dollars. This is the single most important lever in the whole model — because __CO__'s balance sheet is overwhelmingly bitcoin, nearly everything else here moves mechanically with it.
Bitcoin reserve. The total number of bitcoins __CO__ holds in its treasury. Combined with the bitcoin price, this sets the gross value of the company's core asset, before any claims against it are subtracted.
USD balance. __CO__'s combined USD holdings — the USD Reserve (ring-fenced for preferred dividends and debt interest) plus USD Cash (a separate, general-purpose pool introduced as its own disclosed line item in August 2026, usable for BTC purchases, common dividends, or other Bitcoin Treasury purposes). Both count toward Net Reserve the same way, since both are real liquid value backing the equity — tracked together here as one figure rather than as two separate inputs. One consequence worth knowing: USD Duration below is calculated from this combined balance, not from the more narrowly ring-fenced Reserve alone, so it runs a bit longer than a Reserve-only duration would.
Senior claims. Every dollar that ranks ahead of common shareholders. When pulled live, this reflects only the out-of-the-money portion — claims __CO__ would actually need to settle in cash, not the full face value of every debt and preferred instrument outstanding. In-the-money convertibles are excluded here because their dilution is already captured by using a fully diluted share count below; netting their claim value too would double-count that same dilution. If you set this manually, the model doesn't enforce either convention — use whatever figure fits the scenario you're testing.
mNAV. Short for "multiple of Net Asset Value." The premium or discount investors are currently willing to pay for __TICK__ stock relative to its actual per-share residual value after senior claims. 1.00× means the market prices __TICK__ exactly at that underlying worth. A premium above 1.00× typically reflects forward-looking growth expectations — the market pricing in bitcoin __CO__ hasn't bought yet — and that premium tends to run hottest during frothy bitcoin bull markets, when growth expectations get priced in most aggressively. Below 1.00× is a discount.
Cost of capital. __CO__'s current annual obligation for preferred stock dividends plus debt interest, combined — entered directly as a dollar figure, shown alongside that amount as a percentage of total senior claims. That percentage is the more important number conceptually: it's the annualized return bitcoin needs to clear for the whole strategy of issuing debt and preferred stock to buy bitcoin to actually pay off for shareholders.
BTC reserve value. Bitcoin reserve × BTC price. The raw dollar value of everything __CO__ holds in bitcoin, before subtracting anything owed to creditors or preferred holders.
Net reserve. BTC reserve value + USD reserve − senior claims. What would actually be left over for __TICK__ shareholders if __CO__ sold everything and paid off every debt and preferred claim today — the true residual value backing the stock.
Net BTC. Bitcoin reserve − (senior claims − USD reserve) ÷ BTC price. The same residual value as Net Reserve, expressed in bitcoin instead of dollars — effectively, how many of __CO__'s bitcoins are "really" the shareholders' once enough is set aside to cover net claims. Net BTC × BTC price always equals Net Reserve exactly; they're just two views of the same number.
BTC rating. BTC reserve value ÷ (senior claims − USD reserve). This is the multiple of asset coverage __CO__ currently provides for its senior claim holders — how many times over the bitcoin alone (net of what the USD reserve already covers) could pay off every dollar owed to debt and preferred holders. A rating below 1.00× means bitcoin wouldn't fully cover those claims on its own.
USD Duration. USD reserve ÷ Cost of capital. How many years the current USD reserve alone could cover interest and dividend obligations, with no other source of funds.
BTC Duration. BTC reserve value ÷ Cost of capital. How many years the current bitcoin holdings alone — if sold down gradually — could cover interest and dividend obligations. Since bitcoin holdings usually dwarf the annual obligation, this number tends to run very large; it's more a sense of scale than a realistic funding plan.
Amplification. Bitcoin reserve ÷ Net BTC. Because senior claims are a fixed dollar amount while the bitcoin reserve's value moves with price, __TICK__'s residual value swings by more than a 1:1 move with bitcoin — the same structural leverage that lets a small equity slice in a mortgaged house swing wildly with the home's price. The easy version: % change in residual value = Amplification × % change in BTC price (holding the other inputs fixed). For example, at an amplification of 1.5×, a 20% move in BTC translates into a 30% move in __TICK__'s underlying residual value — before any change in mNAV on top of that.
__TICK__ residual value. Net reserve ÷ shares outstanding. This is what each __TICK__ share is actually backed by, in dollars — the per-share slice of __CO__'s assets left over for shareholders once every senior claim is paid. Think of it as __TICK__'s book value per share under this model: pure balance-sheet fundamentals, with no market premium or discount included.
__TICK__ price. __TICK__ residual value × mNAV. This is the modeled market price — what the stock is actually projected to trade at. The difference from residual value: residual value is what __TICK__ is worth today based purely on the balance sheet, while price is what the market is willing to pay for it, which includes whatever premium or discount (mNAV) investors are currently applying on top. At mNAV = 1.00×, price and residual value are identical. Above 1.00×, price runs ahead of residual value; below 1.00×, price trades below it.
Capital Stack (vertical bars). Senior claims sit at the base of the stack — fixed, and paid first. __TICK__ holders' residual sits on top, and is what actually absorbs all of bitcoin's price swings. Both bars total the same height (total reserve assets), just split two different ways: by who owns the value, and by what the value is made of.
Floors. If senior claims ever exceed total reserve assets, Net Reserve and __TICK__ price are floored at $0 for display, and the Capital Stack bar flags the shortfall directly — in reality, a company would face restructuring or heavy dilution well before its equity value actually reached zero.
Balance Sheet Bleed: Cost of capital × years elapsed. The total dividend and interest cost to the net reserve over the defined period. This model's formula simply adds the cost to senior claims as it accrues (without adding to the cost of capital), making no assumption on how __CO__ would pay the credit cost in practice (BTC reserve, USD reserve, shareholder dilution, etc).